Joe Nicols’ 2020 Predictions

 

National

 

US stock market

The US stock market will be relatively stable until March, but between March and May there will be volatility. The market should again stabilize during the summer and for the rest of the year, but I see another stock trading scandal in the fall of 2020.

 

US economy

 Although some sectors are struggling the overall economy is positive. While end-of-the-year sales will have boosted numbers through the holidays, there will be a temporary drop in January productivity giving a slowing effect until the summer.  Summer and fall 2020 should be positive again with a drop in December 2020.

 

The effect of the tariffs on the US

The US is mitigating the negative effects of tariffs on US agriculture because it is subsidizing the farmers to cover losses. Other industries are temporarily adapting and adjusting but are suffering. The tariffs will seem to be good or necessary by some people but by July 2020 the negative effects will come home to roost.

 

Democratic nominee for president

I think Michael Bloomberg waited too late to get into the race as did Tom Steyer and their self-funding may not help them. Joe Biden’s position is not secure and if he plays not to lose he will have the nomination snatched from him at the convention. Bernie Sanders is surging and looks very strong in the spring but carelessness or a feeling of entitlement could cost him right before the convention. I believe Elizabeth Warren will struggle in the spring and appeared to be out of it but will finish strong and could take the nomination by the convention if Sanders and Biden falter. Other candidates will have a tougher time. If Pete Buttigieg looks strong by the convention, opponents and surrogates will use every attack ad in the playbook including focusing on his age and relative inexperience, and presenting coded messages about his orientation. If people hear false claims about someone often enough, they subconsciously begin to doubt and believe the falsehoods.

 

Republican nominee for president

Donald Trump

 

Winning the presidency in 2020

Taking the wisdom of the 2016 election results into account, I see the race being very close again, but I do not see President Trump being reelected in 2020.

 

President removed from office

I do not see Donald Trump being removed from office by act of the US Senate.   However, I see the sequence of events hurting his campaign and he truly did not want to be impeached.

 

Super Bowl Teams 2020

 I feel the breaks are not going for New England this time, and I don’t see them repeating.  I see Seattle as a dark horse, and if Seattle plays Green Bay, whoever wins could go all the way.  Minnesota and Kansas City could both play well.  Who will win? I’ll go out on a limb with a long shot and say Seattle.

 

International

 

Climate change

In spite of growing world awareness about the causes and effects of climate change, responses will continue to be slow. More negative climate events will occur this summer and serious ones will be evident in early 2021. I see (and I hope it is true) that this will be the bottom of the tunnel and encouraging gains will be achieved hereafter, with more polluting nations beginning to come on board with pollution controls.

 

Sea level rise

 As a result of climate change, the increase in intensity of and number of powerful storms will put low-lying coastal cities at higher risk.  As such, be cautious about buying ocean front property in southern Florida or on the US gulf coast for the foreseeable future.

 

US relations with Russia

 Vladimir Putin is worried that they will not be able to affect our election so successfully this time around. Over the next 8 to 9 months, the Russians will continue to cultivate an apparently friendly relationship with Donald Trump, although at the end of the year they will prepare to go back into stealth mode if he does not win. However, they would be more than happy to do business with a former US president.

 

US relations with China

 China is waiting patiently and continues to play the long game.  They see Mr. Trump as unpredictable and a wildcard, and with the U.S. possessing the world’s biggest military, the Chinese are playing carefully. They know Mr. Trump will be gone in one or five years, and can position the chess pieces accordingly.  Several years ago, I predicted that China in 2020 would start using its muscle in Asia and other places and test the U.S. However, after Mr. Trump’s election, the clock seems to have been set back to 2023, which I still see.

 

Success of the Hong Kong resistance movement

 The resistance movement knows how dire Hong Kong’s long-term situation is, and the protests have bought some time, as the Chinese python patiently assesses its global exposure. But if the U.S., the UK, or the rest of Europe do not continue to apply pressure and create visibility, China will continue to work behind the scenes to control the outcome which will be visible within two years. When China’s patience runs out and the python begins to constrict. I feel Hong Kong has limited time for its freedom, and in five years it will be defacto completely under China’s control.

 

Brexit

I don’t see the Brexit process as helping the UK and its economy. I feel the advantage will go to Europe and whoever becomes the UK’s trading partners. I see stability being achieved in five years, but the UK’s place in the world will be forever changed. I also see Scotland eventually negotiating a break from the UK in 3 to 4 years.

 

Prices of gold and crude oil

 Gold prices will continue to be strong and to climb gradually over the next six months. In the fall, the prices will decline until an upward bump occurs at the end of 2020 and early 2021. Prices will drop and continue to be down during 2022. Crude oil prices will rise in the spring with a temporary downturn this summer. Prices will rise again in the fall and have another downturn at the end of the year. Oil prices will again go higher through 2021 and until the end of 2022, at which time crude oil prices should go down and remain stable to mid 2023.

 

U.S. Positon in the World

 The U.S.’s image is currently at a low ebb with the rest of the world, and the U.S. will receive negativity and hatred from angry and disaffected corners of the world this Spring.  The second half of 2020 will indicate improvement in the world’s perception of the U.S. and in 2021 and 2022 will show apparent improvement.  However, as I have said before, in 2023, China will turn up the heat and we will be back to a cold war status.  America has never been perfect, but has been an experiment in democracy, creativity, and opportunity.  However, even though the Roman Empire lasted 1000 years, historically all empires have risen and declined.  I feel like we are witnessing the slow decline of the American Empire relative to other burgeoning countries.  A house divided cannot stand, and will need to be unified to control our decline.

Local

 

Austin real estate market

Although I see some kind of downturn during the summer of this year, possibly due to an overbuilding problem, real estate investment in Austin over the next 2 to 3 years will be steady.

 

Austin economy

Austin’s economy will be strong throughout 2020.  but national economic and political changes will begin to influence Austin in late 2020, although the limiting effects on the Austin economy will not take hold until 2021. Austin will be stable but with less rapid growth from 2021 to 2024.

 

U.T. Longhorn Football 2020

 The Longhorns will lose some games and will win some games.  (I hope).

 

 

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