July 29, 2020

Joe Nicols’ Covid-19 Predictions Update

I believe while Covid-19 treatments, masks, distancing, testing and tracing will save lives and buy us more time, our real way out of this pandemic medically and economically, is related to finding vaccines that work, and then distributing these functional vaccines to immunize the general public.  When that happens, people (like myself) will feel safe and will come out to work, socialize and spend money.  Between then and now, there will be the expected juggle of fighting off the virus, trying to stay afloat financially, waiting until the storm passes, getting back to more normality in work, school and play, and then rebuilding.

For the past several weeks, I have seen the final “opening up” coming in February or March.  Now it is looking like mid-late March or early April.  I feel that while many vaccines are being tested, several will not live up to hopes, but at least two will be deemed very successful by the end of the year.  I believe it will then take 2 to 3 months to ramp up production and distribution (if we don’t repeat the testing nightmare), and there may be an initial preference given to medical personnel, first responders, nursing homes, etc.  I think mass distribution will be achieved in March/April of next year, which will boost morale and should begin to grow city and state economies dramatically after that.  I see the U.S. economy as a whole recovering within 18-20 months from now.

Please stay safe and let’s be good to each other.

Joe 

 

©Joe Nicols 2020