Joe Nicols’ 2019 Predictions

 

International:

Climate Change

Environmentalists and scientists around the world will continue to be frustrated over the next 2 years.  Although in 2021, renewed global efforts assisted by the U.S., will attempt to effect positive changes, climate change stabilization will not be noticeable until 2026.  In the meantime, storms, fires, droughts, and floods will continue and seem to be getting worse.

Sea Level Rise

With melting ice caps, and larger and more frequent storms, sea level will continue to rise until 2027.  Warmer waters will decimate coral reefs in the Caribbean and in the Pacific. Six inhabited islands in the Pacific will have to be abandoned by their citizens.  With these changes, massive pollution, and square miles of plastic garbage, our oceans are sick.

U.S. staying in the Paris Climate Accord

While President Trump’s administration will try to disrupt the U.S. compliance in small ways, the U.S. cannot officially withdraw from the accord until November 2020, and a new administration will continue compliance.

Bashar Al Assad Continuing to Rule Syria

In the past, I have said that Assad would be difficult to remove from power and might survive for years.  Now with powerful support from Russia and Iran, although he will be challenged severely in summer and fall of this year, he looks to maintain his position in at least part of Syria for years into the future.

Brexit

There will be contentious, last-minute compromises before the March 29^thdate for the U.K. to leave the European Union.  Many will be upset and the British economy will feel the hurt at first, but within six months government and corporate entities will adapt and begin to recover by 2020.  Unfortunately for the near future, the U.K.’s financial and geopolitical position will be weakened.

U.S. Relations with China

At this time in the big picture, relations are generally stable notwithstanding the back and forth political posturing due to tariffs.  However, the Chinese will embark on an enhanced clandestine hacking and disinformation campaign starting in fall of 2019 and continuing throughout 2020.  The U.S. will continue to have the upper hand with China financially, technologically, and militarily for three more years, but in 2023 the U.S. will think it can still hold sway or call the shots, but China will be squeezing the U.S.’s sphere like a python slowly squeezing the air out of its victim.  By 2024, China will be feeling its oats and will be throwing the U.S. bones and concessions which The U.S. will not like but will choose to accept.  The U.S. tends to play for immediate, short term gains while China plays the long game.

U.S. Relations with Russia

Much like the situation with China, even though there is heart-burn about interference with the 2016 election and continued social media hacking, in the big picture relations are stable.  I believe that Vladimir Putin does not feel Donald Trump is a threat to his power in Russia.  I have predicted for years that Russia is neither a friend nor ally of the U.S., and will for the foreseeable future attempt to diminish U.S. power, success, and influence with the European Union and other regions in the world.

*Joe’s editorial comment on Russia’s social media barrage in 2016:

Russia has attacked our country.  This is not a credit card, bank, industrial, or military hack.  It is an attack on and invasion of our democratic process in the same vein as an attack on the Ukraine.  Paraphrasing Senator Marco Rubio on CNN, “Now it is the Democrats, next time it could be the Republicans.” Giving Russia a pass on helping elect a candidate some of us might like, is giving away our farm. This could be very bad for our country’s future if it goes unchallenged.

 The U.S. Relations with Saudia Arabia

The U.S./Saudi relationship will be uncertain for about 18 months, and the Saudi government is learning a lesson about the impact of public opinion in the U.S. which it is not used to having to take into account. Within four months, the Saudis will become more clandestine and less transparent with U.S. which will negatively affect the ability of both countries to work together.  I get that Crown Prince Mohammad Bin Salman will be under the gun for the next three months but then the U.S. public’s short attention span will relegate the events to yesterday’s news and he will reduce his visibility but remain in power.

U.S. Withdrawal from Syria

The U.S. will not suffer directly during the next six months as a result of the Syrian withdrawal. However, Russia and Iran will begin to further expand their influence in the fall of 2019 which will be felt by the U.S., and the U.S. will have to put more money into the region than it is at present.  As U.S. influence wanes, the Kurds will be under more pressure and their strength in the area will be compromised.  The situation will gradually deteriorate over time and by the summer of 2021 will again be a hornet’s nest.

U.S. Power Position in the World

While the U.S.’s reputation around the world has temporarily taken a big hit due to our political strife and administration policies, because of our economic, technological, and media industries, the world’s positive perception of the U.S. will generally remain strong.  However, in seven years much of the rest of the world will have caught up, and the U.S. will have to more humbly accept our equality and parity with other nations.

Science

There will continue to be acceleration in block chain technology, robotics, A.I., autonomous (self-diving) vehicles, and cloning.  I believe that, as happened in the movie, “Jurassic Park”, there are private companies already focusing on cloning prehistoric mammoths from flash frozen carcasses found in the Artic (I would pay to see them). Space tourism is coming quickly from several companies.  While I get that the space flights are very risky this year, in the future, they will be almost as safe as current jet liners.

Medicine

There will be at least three new strains of pathogens that will cause alarm in the international medical community during the next year.  Also, gene therapy and genetic manipulation (ethical or not) will expand.  3-D printing of organs for injury repair or transplants will become more common.

Prices of Gold and Crude Oil

I feel the spot price of gold slipping over the next few months and may drop as much as 20 points.  I believe the current price of oil is at a bottom and will rise to the low-to-mid 50s per barrel during the summer of 2019.

National:                                                      

Donald Trump’s Presidency

Mr. Trump is not comfortable in his present situation and secretly doubts his wanting to be in the presidency.  He will have more challenges in February and March which will further strain his relationships with G.O.P. lawmakers.  His supporters will rally around him in the Fall of 2019, but entering the fourth year of his term in 2020 serious challenges will emerge relating to his situation and potential re-election.  That being said, connections he will make at the end of term in late 2020 will precipitate tremendous personal financial success for Mr. Trump in mid 2022 and beyond.  I do not see Donald Trump being indicted while he is in office, but if he is not re-elected in 2020, in six months some people will put forward the idea, but it will not be pursued.  I do not get that his children or Jared Kushner will be indicted.  Also, I see the idea of impeachment being voiced in 2019, but I believe the Democrats will be content to let Mr. Trump continue to erode his and the G.O.P.’s power with his tweets and blunders.  The Democrats will not want to enliven Mr. Trump’s base by using the impeachment nuclear option and then possibly not succeeding.

Donald Trump Winning Republican Nomination in 2020

Several Republicans will consider contesting Trump for the 2020 G.O.P. presidential nomination.  Bob Corker and Jeff Flake will come on strong early, but Senator Flake will flag in mid 2020. Bob Corker and Ben Sasse will both finish strong and press Trump by the convention.  Carly Fiorina, John Kasich, Ted Cruz, and Mitt Romney will not have traction in 2020.  Susan Martinez would be considered as an alternative ticket Vice Presidential candidate. Mark Cuban will throw a lot of money into his campaign, but will not gather enough support.  Although Trump’s image is suffering now, in the fall of 2019 his supporters will try to rehab his brand for the 2020 re-election run. At the convention, contenders will surface, but Trump will secure the nomination after closer than expected voting. Although the Presidential election will also be closer than expected, I do not see Donald Trump being re-elected.

Democratic Challengers for the 2020 Presidential Nomination

I believe that Hillary Clinton will forgo another run for President.  Both Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden have a shot for the nomination. Beto O’Rourke will run into negative campaigning concerning his past and will be sabotaged because the Republicans are afraid he could win.  John Delaney will do well and impress some voters.  Michael Bloomberg will use his personal war chest and be a contender. Jay Inslee of Washington will be a surprise and do very well.  Jeff Merksley and Steve Bullock will get some support.  Cory Booker would get strong support from the women’s vote.  Deval Patrick would win points for healthcare. Elizabeth Warren will inspire passion in voters but will not have enough broad appeal.  Julian Castro, Sherrod Brown, Kirsten Gillibrand, Kamala Harris and Amy Klobushar will not garner sufficient backing to be contenders.  Michael Avenatti will get more women clients.

The Effects of Tariffs in the U.S.

There will be no noticeable heartburn from tariffs over the next four months, but in May 2019 there will be negatives and a major blowback in U.S. industries about the effects of the tariffs.

The U.S. Economy

The U.S. economy is still in good shape for now, but in April 2019, Government decisions or some event will create a blip which will put a damper on growth for several months.  The economy will be chugging again in mid fall of 2019, and hold steady until fall of 2020, at which time the economy will begin to slow until the end of 2021.

The U.S. Stock Market

Although the market has been seriously down recently, I see it correcting and improving over the next six to eight weeks, and will continue to be fairly stable until October of 2019, at which time another milder correction will occur.

Weather and Hurricanes in the U.S.

I get a severe winter storm in February in the eastern part of the U.S. and two serious hurricanes in mid and late summer, one hitting the gulf coast and one in northern Florida and the Carolinas.

Super Bowl Teams – 2019

I get the Chiefs could win it, and the Saints will start strong but may fizzle at the end.  The Texans and Ravens have an even shot, and the Cowboys will catch fire, peak, and do better than expected.  The Colts and Eagles will both improve their brands financially with their playoff participation. I do not see the Chargers, Patriots, Rams, Bears, or Seahawks winning the Super Bowl.

Local:

Austin Economy

The Austin economy is temporarily suppressed for about nine months, but over the next two years there will continue to be more tech, medical and industrial companies infusing capital and jobs into Austin.  Austin is also poised to become economically red hot within three years, and that spurt will continue for several years after that.

Austin Real Estate

The Austin real estate market does not seem to exactly mirror the Austin economy and gives the impression of slowing a bit with a low spot in about three months.  It will pick up dramatically in four months, and the rest of 2019 to the summer of 2020 and will be brisk.  After mid – 2020 the Austin market will begin to stabilize.

Texas Longhorn Football Team

With graduations and new players, U.T. will still win at least nine games next season.