Joe Nicols’ 2025 Predictions
Local
Austin Economy
The Austin economy will slow through January, but corporate projects and newly arriving companies will be cranking up sales and expenditures in February and throughout the Spring and Summer. The increase in consumer prices will not slow enough to immediately help the average Austin resident, but the benefit should show up by the Fall.
Austin Real Estate
The Austin real estate market will perk up in March and continually improve through the end of the year. Austin real estate should then stay strong through the end of 2026.
National
U.S. Immigration
The incoming administration will be bucking a headwind of resistance in the leadup to the inauguration. During the first six months of 2025, the Trump Administration will attempt to make dramatic changes but will experience a 2-steps forward, one-step back process. Two years into the new term, and after midterm elections, the new administration will shift focus away from immigration and onto other things. I feel that immigration will not be effectively dealt with until 2029/2030.
Abortion
Abortion opponents will not be budging in the next six months, but after that some individual states will roll back some of the more Draconian prohibitions. For a time, it will become like earlier changes in U.S. alcohol legality, with wet states/counties-dry states/counties. I see a significant lessening of abortion restrictions in 5-6 years.
U.S. and Ukraine
U.S. officials do not recognize how frustrated and angry the Ukrainian government is with the upcoming uncertainties of the U.S. leadership change. I feel Ukraine has contingency plans to increase the intensity of their war effort and possibly more sabotage strikes or assassinations within Russia. However, there will be improvements for Ukraine within 7-8 months, and a possible truce with Russia in about 18 months, which will please the U.S. but not Ukraine.
E.T.s, UAPs, and USOs (formerly UFOs)
For many years I have seen, felt and dreamed about E.T.s. I am convinced they are real, multidimensional, and are around and even among us. I believe the U.S. government has been dealing with them since 1947, and has continued a pact of secrecy for decades. The government now seems to be slowly relaxing the control that has included secrecy, denial and debunking, and moving to gradual disclosure to the media. I believe this gradual relaxation will continue over the next 2 years by allowing retired whistle-blowers to disclose non-classified material without apparent recrimination (or without as in past decades, possibly even assassination?). I feel however, that the government is throwing out red meat to the public while maintaining and guarding military and political secrets. I see an unintended disclosure occurring at the end of 2026 or early in 2027, which will shock many people, and throw the government into damage control, with repercussions for 2-3 years.
U.S. Economy
I feel the economy will continue to be positive and encouraging for the first four months of 2025, but after that, political decisions and internal/external strife will create an up and down roller coaster which will last at least until the end of 2025. Tariffs will contribute to some of the instability. The economy will stabilize in early 2026 and be more solid again the by the Fall of 2026.
U.S. Interest Rates
I get there is a lot of political pressure behind the scenes on the Feds with respect to lowing interest rates or keeping them the same. I believe there will be a lowering of the rate within 6 to 8 weeks, and then a hold until the Summer at which time there will be one rate reduction from July through the end of the year, after which time the rate will hold well into 2026.
U.S. Stock Markets
(As we know, the stock markets do not totally reflect the state of the US economy).
The US stock markets will stay in relatively positive territory into the Summer and become more volatile by the end of the year. The markets should level off in the Spring of 2026 but a “bear market” will weaken markets from the Summer of 2026 to the end of that year.
U.S. Weather
There will be two hurricanes aiming toward Florida, one in August and one in October of this year. One will hit the east coast and one the gulf coast.
President Trump
President Trump will have some unexpected disappointment with a female appointee in his administration within the next six weeks. His situation in general will smooth out after that into the Fall. It will be hard to tell, but Mr. Trump will be “holding his breath” from now until next Fall hoping his second term will be more positive for him than his first term was. For a variety of reasons, he will be more experienced and comfortable in his second term. I see what amounts to a “honeymoon” in 2025, but that will end in 2026, and the rest of his term in office will be more challenging.
Elon Musk (DOGE)
As the front person in the Department of Government Efficiency, Mr. Musk will take the heat for the President for attempts at dramatic changes in the government status quo. In the first six months of 2025, Elon will make changes in areas and will feel encouraged. But he has underestimated the political skills of legislators who are not enamored with him, and whose own power is threatened by his agenda. He may become impatient and frustrated with people not doing what he wants, but if he stays through mid-late 2026, he could achieve more fiscal impact, and continue until the middle of 2028, Trumps final year in office.
U.S. and NATO
Mr. Trump and his Administration will be frustrated with NATO members over the next 6 months as they will not fall in line with his wishes (or directions), and they will be willing to go it alone if necessary. Some NATO members will continue not to provide what Mr. Trump considers their fair share, and this continues into 2026. Over the next three years however, most members will cooperate more fully, but before he leaves office, some of Mr. Trumps parting decisions could ultimately hurt the relationship.
The U.S. and the E.U.
Overall, the European Union as an organization will have a better relationship with the US than NATO, probably due to the trade and economic connections that already exist. At the end of 2025 and the beginning of 2026, the EU will feel that the US is not benefitting Europe, but I get that the value for the EU is in fact there.
U.S. Relations with China
Because of the current unknowns, China is hanging back, and communications will on the surface, be cordial and conciliatory. I believe that while China can try to assess Donald Trump and predict his behavior, his personality is an enigma with respect to what China is used to. I feel China will methodically probe the physical and ideological positions of the U.S. and its allies, and observe over the next two years. In 2027, China will be less cautious and more direct, especially in the South China Sea, as Trump passes the midpoint of his term. In one to two years after his term expires, Mr. Trump will try to present himself as an outside negotiator/mediator to deal with China’s aggressiveness, but if China cannot manipulate him they will just dismiss him.
International
China and Taiwan
Many people have seen what happened to Hong Kong when its 99-year lease with Great Britain expired. China now completely controls Hong Kong, a small area with 7.5 million people. Taiwan however, is a break-away republic and an island with a population of about 23.5 million. Taiwan has a successful economy with a world-leading superconductor industry, and defense treaties with other countries, including the U.S. Several years ago, I said China would try to take back Taiwan in 2024, then changed to 2026, then to four to five years later. I have settled now on 2030. I believe China will continue to grow its military and economy, and wait patiently for the U.S. and the West to show weakness or instability. China hopes to exploit the weaknesses and be able to walk into Taiwan through intimidation and false promises without firing a shot. We’ll see.
Science
Last year I predicted the discovery of at least two more pre-homo sapiens hominins, which occurred. But, I believe there are many more coming. I think we had a number of competitors, some in our lineage and some not, but we managed to outlive and out last all of them, except for some traces of Neanderthal and Denisovan DNA that a few of us have.Ukraine and Russia Russia will continue to bleed in losing soldiers and resources for the next 8 months. Russia will attempt a Spring push to try to gain ground, but despite the infusion of North Korea troops and negotiation attempts by Mr. Trump, the effort will stall. Mr. Putin is personally and emotionally attached to annexing all of Ukraine, but fundamental factors are more and more against that outcome. In the fall of 2025, Mr. Putin will begin to recognize the potential need for a settlement, but will try one massive attempt in early 2026, which will fail and outrage most of the world. I don’t see it as a nuclear event. Ultimately, I now see the possibility of a cease-fire, truce and negotiated settlement with Ukraine in mid-2026. Russia will want to keep the territory it holds and will want to deny Ukraine membership in NATO or allowing NATO bases in Ukraine. Ukraine will continue to have strong ties with the U.S. in the future.
AI Technology
Because of advances in AI and microtechnology, artificial humans will be so sophisticated in their designs that within 8 years it will be difficult to tell the difference between humans and robots. Some people will opt to pay a lot of money for a physically functioning and communicating partner. It may spawn a new branch of psychology I could call “Reprogramming Couples’ Therapy.” I am only half-joking. I do not think the robot will have a soul and be sentient, but some people believe that gray E.Ts may be some kind of biological/technological cyborg, and someday we may be creating hybrid beings, possibly for space travel.
International Travel
I seem to see a luxury ocean liner or large ship in trouble in the Asia/Pacific area during mid-Summer with some loss of life.
International Finance
Cryptocurrencies will continue to flourish in 2025, drawing investors with their high risk/high reward potential. I have some clients who have done well in those investments and some who have lost substantially. I don’t feel like crypto will eclipse the stock market with all of its publicly traded companies, at lease any time soon.
Israel in Syria and Lebanon
For the most part, Syria and Lebanon are heading into a positive rebuilding period, and Israel will not obstruct the arrival of help for those nations. The victorious rebels are putting forward a good face to the world, and it will be an improvement, but they are not divulging everything. The rebels will have to move into statesmanship.
Israel in Gaza
If Syria and Lebanon are the light of the Moon, what is happening in Gaza is the dark side. I see it taking at least three years for the anger to subside on both sides. But the memories will last a lifetime.