Joe Nicols’ 2024 Predictions
Local
Austin Economy
The Austin Economy will be stable, but will continue to be influenced more and more by the large Corporate presences that are arriving or expanding here. The tech, service and retail economies will be benefitted, but with increased housing costs, some members of the Austin community will be priced out of the market and will have to stay where they are or move out and commute. Many people have noticed that Austin is changing.
Austin Real Estate
Unfortunately, the potential decreases in interest rates will not be enough to jump start the Austin real estate market into another boom. There will be some sales, however Austin like other cities in Texas, is still a desirable place to buy (or rent). Real Estate sales will pick up in late 2024 and be stronger in 2025.
National
U.S. Stock Markets
The U.S. stock market will be volatile in 2024, with increased uncertainty from May through September. The market will rebound in November and should roar into 2025.
U.S. Interest Rates
The Fed has said in the recent past, it will decrease interest rates several times in 2024, and I see a slight reduction coming around February, but it is already having second thoughts because of the oil supply chain upset in the Red Sea. In the spring, the Fed may tap the brakes, with a possible smaller decrease in the Summer. Further decreases in interest rates will happen in 2025.
U.S. Economy
The underpinnings of the U.S. Economy are still solid, but the perception of the economy by the public will be negatively impacted by political conflict in preparations for the political campaigns. But as I said last year, I see the economy being very strong in 2025.
Weather
There will be a Tsunami on the Pacific coast of Asia in August or September of this year.
National Event
A highway bridge will come down in Louisiana or Mississippi in April or May of this year.
GOP Nomination
One year ago I saw Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis going after each other with both potentially being harmed and a third candidate emerging who might be more centrist. DeSantis didn’t go after Trump, but was still harmed, and the third candidate I saw appears to be Nikki Haley. With respect to Mr. Trumps legal situations, I believe that the U.S. Supreme Court may not automatically side with Trump in every case, and therefore it is unclear at this time if he will be able to secure the GOP nomination. I do not see Mr. Trump choosing either Nikki Haley or Ron DeSantis as a running mate.
The Health conditions of Biden and Trump
Mr. Trump is very low in energy right now, probably due to his outside legal situations. Once these are resolved, Mr. Trumps physical energy will be stronger for several years. Mr. Biden appears to have a physical setback coming in about two years, and a major decline beginning in five years.
Kamala Harris
Joe Biden has been giving Kamala Harris more duties with exposure to reassure the public about her competence, and to reduce pressure from party members who would want to have her replaced.
U.S. Presidential election
Too many variables are unresolved and there are still a lot of juggling balls in the air at this time. The U.S. Presidential race appears murky and I don’t see the result yet.
Hunter Biden
There will be legal consequences for Hunter Biden, although some Republicans will feel they are too light. I see only mild negative effects of the legal results on Joe Biden’s campaign.
U.S. Border and Immigration situation
The current administration or even a new administration will continue to put band aids on the problem for the next five years. I believe immigration has become a political and values issue, rather than just a security problem. Unfortunately, I see illegal immigration problems still being a big challenge at least 10 years from now. All of this will keep our country from maintaining an adequate workforce and attracting skilled workers. Other countries will eclipse us in these areas.
International
Science
This year anthropologists will discover at least two more early humanoids to add to the chart of prehumen species.
Breakthroughs in animal and human genetics will further studies in gene splicing and manipulation leading to re-growing human organs and body parts. Through permafrost and tar pit recoveries and even taxidermy, scientists are also closer to cloning extinct species such as the Tasmanian Tiger, Woolly Mammoth, Sabre-Toothed cat, Steppe Bison and maybe even the Dodo bird. (I will buy a ticket to see them.)
National Science
Despite global regulatory attempts such as the AI Act between the U.S. , China and the E.U., individuals will use the technology to produce deep fakes, voice synthesis and plagiarism (such as with Chat GPT) at an increasing rate. Problems will arise after August of this year, in the U.S. political arena, as the internet will be hit with bots conveying bogus impersonations of candidates.
The Gaza War
I get a tremendous amount of anger on both sides and many books have been written as to where the anger is generated. In the immediate case it will take at least six months before international pressure can start bringing both sides to the table, and another six months before anything substantially positive can result. I am concerned that it may take several generations before negative memories of the trauma both sides have sustained can be healed and peace attained.
Ukraine
The U.S. will continue to support Ukraine for the next four months, after which time the general feeling in America will become more, “How long can we continue to pump billions into Ukraine?” During the spring and summer Americans will need to see more success on the battlefield or see Putin’s forces withdraw. However, something will happen in the fall which will positively reignite the U.S.’s commitment.
Ukraine and Russia
I believe Ukraine and Russia are fighting to a stalemate. Whoever wishes to attack aggressively runs the risk of being in a quagmire. In resisting Russia, Ukraine has served as an effective surrogate for the U.S. and Nato in degrading Russia’s military, depleting its resources and revealing its intentions to the world. However, as I predicted last year, Ukraine may have to compromise in its desire to reclaim all of its territory. If Putin manages to hold power, he will continue to sacrifice his soldiers and treasure for his empirical rebuilding of Russia.
U.S. and Russia
As I predicted for many years since Vladimir Putin’s’ ascension to power, he can never be trusted and he will always work against the U.S. You can take the officer out of the KGB, but you can’t take the KGB out of the officer. Russia does respect the U.S., but it’s like respecting a sports team that your team has always wanted to beat. Most of 2024 will see the U.S. and Russia seemingly getting along on the surface, partly because Russia is not presently in a position of strength. However, at the end of the year, relations will intensify, possibly because of some situation involving Ukraine or the U.S. election This intermittent conflict will continue for years unless there is a regime change that is more moderate and open to dialogue and seeing common goals.
China and Taiwan
China has always wanted to have Taiwan back and in the past, I have predicted that it would try in 2024, then changed it to 2026, then four to five years. I get that China continues to re-evaluate the endeavor, taking into consideration it’s economic woes (including COVID), its aging population, and seeing Russia’s challenges in trying to take Ukraine. But patience is in the Chinese cultural nature. Now, I get the new Chinese goal is 2030, although China will test the U.S. with a feigned escalation in the new year of 2025, possibly to due to foreign policy issues for the U.S., at the end of this year.
U.S. Relations with China
China is still relatively strong, but has had some unpredicted setbacks recently. The U.S. feels more danger from China than either Russia or Iran, and is watching China closely. In November, China will do some sabre-rattling which the U.S. will counter successfully. In summer of 2025, China will do something that the U.S. is already expecting, but as a result, the U.S. will pour a lot of money and research into countering that situation as well. In 2027, the U.S. and China will enter a three -year period, resembling a schoolyard fight, which the U.S. will again counter China, provoking anger on the part of the Chinese. This could result in the Chinese decision to move on Taiwan in 2030. I believe my predictions about the U.S. and China, are not etched in stone, as I’ve seen deviations from what I saw over the last several years. Hopefully peaceful cooperation can prevail.
Climate Change
I am reprinting my climate change future time-line from my January 2022 predictions below. I believe these are generally still accurate.
2025 – Clear increases in warming and weather events with flooding and other effects.
2026 – Noticeable effects apparent on sea water levels, crops, and wildlife.
2027 – Alarmed citizens pressure governments to control emissions and pollution, hoping that will work. (It won’t).
2030 – Increase in global climate disruptions and disasters with flooding and noticeable rising sea level. Some climate deniers start waking up, and large corporations recognize they are on the Titanic and their profits are in jeopardy.
2031 – The world begins to take climate change seriously and begins to work together to stop the runaway train.
2032 – I hope it works.